Lithium battery oversupply, low prices seen
The global market for lithium-ion batteries is expected to remain oversupplied through 2028, pushing prices downward, as lower
The growth of domestic lithium production in China, Europe, and the USA underscores the importance of determining to what extent domestic supply can satisfy future EV batteries' lithium demand and whether imports will be necessary. Given that lithium is also used in other sectors such as glassmaking, an analysis of how lithium is used is warranted.
The International Energy Agency warns of potential lithium shortages as demand increases, while mining challenges and the long timeline for new production contribute to supply concerns. Lithium prices are not reflecting real-world demand trends for the battery metals, which may at some point lead to a dramatic correction.
But Beijing's July pledge to crack down on overcapacity across several sectors including lithium and the August production halt at Chinese battery giant CATL's (300750.SZ) Jianxiawo mine, accounting for around 3% of global supply, sparked a global price surge.
While long-term prices are stable and follow supply cost curves, short-term imbalances can cause price spikes, driving rapid supply expansion. Recent lithium oversupply led to a 2023–2024 price crash, prompting miners to halt production and expansion. However, this may be temporary, due to the rapid increase in demand.
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